Marc My Words: I Predict More Predictions for 2018

As 2017 draws to a close, we come to the silly season ofpredictions for 2018 about our field. Naturally, I can’t resist chiming in. Hereare my 15 predictions about what will be predicted, with just a little bit ofmy tongue in my cheek.

I predict:

1. Therewill, of course, be predictions that more people will discover the wonderfulness of instructional design—and then fail to follow it. This will be balancedby a similar number of predictions of its demise.
2. Therewill certainly be predictions around new technologies as “game-changers.” Thesewill be forgotten and replaced with new game-changing shiny object predictionsin 2019.
3. Learningpundits will predict that training is dead. Others will predict that we are atthe dawn of a new golden age of training. Few will be able to adequatelyexplain the rationale behind either.
4. Somecompanies will cut back on learning and development, often at the wrong time;but I can’t predict if they will do so before or after cutting back otherequally important costs, like coffee, donuts, and travel.
5. Thedebate as to whether learning (aka training) should be a part of HR will go on,likely forever.
6. Manylearning prognosticators will note the transformation from learning toperformance, like they have predicted for almost three decades. The strugglecontinues.
7. Therewill, of course, be new “hot” buzzwords and jargon in our field. But ourability to explain them to upper management on their terms remainsunpredictable.
8. Learningsoothsayers will continue to hype new adjectives in front of the word“learning”— “blended,” “virtual,” “informal,” “rapid,” “macro,” “micro,” “workplace,”and more. The latest is “modern learning” (whatever that is). But thecontinuing inability of many of them to clearly define how the second word,“learning,” really works will be continue to be particularly troublesome.
9. In2018, some training organization will invest everything into virtual and/or augmentedreality. Prediction: they may not be around in 2019.
10. Reallearning science will continue to advance what we know about human learning. Thesestudies will continue to be published in print and online journals that fewwill read.
11. Speakingof learning science, new unproven learning science and fads will, predictably,be all the rage until the next one comes along.
12. Someonewill invent software that turns bad PowerPoint into good PowerPoint. OK, let’sdrop this one; it’s much too scary.
13. Somewhere,in some training organization, someone will utter the phrase “seat at thetable” just one too many times, and their head will explode.
14. Thename “Kirkpatrick” will be mentioned 14,473,891 times in 2018.
15. Finally,the learning and development predictions business will predictably continue toboom, with no predictable end in sight.

On a serious note, watch for multiple columns, blogs, andarticles with predictions about our field for the coming year. Some predictionson what’s hot and what’s not may be self-serving and promotional; others may befanciful or way too futuristic. Look out for predictions that appear just alittle ridiculous, simply wishful thinking, or not based on any data. And yes,there will be some well-grounded and practical predictions for 2018; lookcarefully as you separate them from all the others. Consider them, but also takethem all with a grain of salt. Remember, these training fortune-tellers are notin your organization. They don’t know you or the challenges and opportunitiesyou face. Only you can say for sure what the future of your work will be.

Happy New Year!