“Everybody can learn to think like a futurist,” Amy Webbtold DevLearn 2017 Conference & Expo attendees at the opening general session onOctober 25, “Sci-Fi Meets Reality: The Future, Today.” It’s a good thing; thetheme of the conference was “The Future Is Here,” and the general sessions—aswell as many breakout sessions—looked ahead to anticipate and plan for thefuture of eLearning.
For anyone hoping to learn how to anticipate future humanbehavior, Webb is an excellent guide. She’s the founder of the Future TodayInstitute, publisher of the FTI TrendReport, an author, and a leading futurist.
A futurist, Webb said, learns to “listen for weak signals atthe fringe”—the fringe of human experience, behavior, and learning. The buddingfuturist then seeks to recognize patterns in that data early, so as to spotemerging trends.
Anticipating the question forming in the minds of audiencemembers, Webb segued to an explanation of why algorithms do a poor job of“strategic forecasting” based on data about human behavior. Humans are simply“too capricious,” Webb explained, for logical, rule-bound logarithms to predictwith any accuracy.
Her overview of the development of artificial intelligenceand machine learning made clear the inherent problems with relying on machinesto think for us. While machines might have what she termed “artificial narrowintelligence”—an ability to do specific, narrowly defined tasks better thanhumans can—that is not the same as thinking and predicting behavior.
“We don’t really want machines that can think,” Webb said.The true goal is machines that learn and make decisions on their own. But thatlearning and those decisions are based on their coding, which is performed byhumans. Humans with human biases and fallibilities. At present, Webb said, thetechnologists who develop artificial intelligence and the educators and ethicistswho develop learning and attempt to influence human behavior and values work indifferent spheres with little overlap, resulting in a dearth of ethical valuesguiding the automated decision-making.
Webb described projects that “taught” computers to recognizecategories of people, citing the example of a computer that “learned” toidentify a “typical CEO” from a selection of photos. “How might this go wrong?”Webb asked rhetorically, to a background of knowing laughter. Her next slideshowed the computer’s idea of a CEO: middle-aged, almost always white, andalways male. There was one notable exception in the slew of photos of men: aphoto of the CEO Barbie toy.
How does all of this relate to eLearning? Again, Webbanticipated the question. Her response gave hope to some—and terrified others. Shepresented three possible future scenarios:
- Everyone in the learning arena learns torecognize weak signals; they work with technologists to refine artificialintelligence to instill values. Future machines learn not only to identifycorrect and incorrect answers; they also learn right and wrong. Webb said thatshe gives this optimistic scenario a 25 percent chance of occurring.
- Everyone present is inspired by her talk butthey, and the rest of the learning world, do nothing. Artificial intelligencecontinues to develop as it has in the past, learning to identify correctanswers but lacking values. Webb’s prediction is that this pragmatic optimisticscenario has a 50 percent chance of occurring.
- Learning and artificial intelligence continue todevelop on separate tracks. Future artificial intelligence and machine learningprojects incorporate real biases that affect what and how people learn and howknowledge is transferred. Webb said that she gives this catastrophic scenario a25 percent chance of occurring.
In an attempt to end on a strong positive note, Webb saidthat “the future hasn’t happened yet—we think” and encouraged attendees to takeaction. “To build the future of learning that you want, listen to weak signalsnow.”
Looking to the future
Conference-goers streamed from Webb’s talk to any of dozensof options in the first block of breakout sessions. Across two and a half days,they could choose from hundreds of sessions that looked to the future of eLearning, attempted to define “community” in the age of digital learning—and offered tips, tricks, and examples of what they could do rightnow to create engaging, effective eLearning. Alternatively, the almost 3,200participants could wander through the biggest-ever Expo, with 145 vendorsshowing off their wares: localization tools, authoring tools, audio narration,branding and customization, turnkey eLearning solutions, and much, much more.The intrepid ventured into a virtual world at the VR Learning Lab, where theyplayed games, watched virtual reality films, and tried out VR apps.
Most conference-goers interrupted their wandering andlearning to attend the second general session with legendary animator GlenKeane, who spent 38 years at Walt Disney Feature Animation, drawing characters thatmany attendees grew up with. (Keane delivered a stunning and popular keynoteat Learning Solutions 2017 Conference & Expo in March.)
Keane’s address, “Embracing Technology-Based Creativity,” startedwith Keane reminiscing about his initial design of the Beast, and whether Belle(the Beauty) could fall in love with this creature. As he described his designprocess, Keane sketched the Beast. The session ended with Keane’s demonstrationof an augmented reality drawing tool, Tilt Brush, which he used to create a 3-D drawing on the screens as a breathlessaudience watched.
Sandwiched in between, Keane shared his thoughts on howmoving from hand drawing to computer-drawn animation forced him to think aboutdrawing. “I’d draw to make the paper go away,” Keane said. “I’ve always wantedto make the surface go away so I could live in my drawing.”
New technologies, like 360-degree animations, make thatpossible—but also transformed storytelling. “Story was no longer linear,” Keanesaid, showing an early 360-degree movie short, Duet, which has an interactive version that can be viewed on some Androidsmartphones in 3-D, and on iOS as well. (To view the show in fullinteractive 360, use the Google Spotlight Stories app on a compatible Android device. For iOS, download the Google Spotlight Stories app.)
The characters circle each other—and the viewer, who canturn and look in any direction. Learning professionals are grappling with thechallenges and opportunities the new world of immersive, nonlinear storiesoffers.
Storytelling powers learning
A much-anticipated general session with actor, producer, andcultural icon LeVar Burton focused on technology and storytelling. Admonishingthe audience not to dismiss the “storytelling power of video games,” Burtonsaid, “Storytelling in this modern technological age is very probably the mostadvanced system for learning in history.”
Burton’s talk emphasized the importance of education andliteracy, and he shared many memories of his mother, who had a powerfulinfluence on his life and career.
“Reading is the single most important activity in which wecan engage for learning,” Burton said, before showing the crowd the ways he hasupdated his Reading Rainbow childhoodliteracy TV program for the digital age, re-creating the program as “Skybrary School.”
Commenting on video games and immersive storytellingformats, Burton said, “We are capable of accessing multiple elements ofstorytelling simultaneously, often without being aware.”
The conference closed with a final general session talkdelivered by Jane McGonigal. The futurist and game designer delivered analternative take on “How to Think Like a Futurist,” describing the interactionbetween our present selves and our ideas of our future selves. For an in-depthreview of McGonigal’s talk, see “How to Think Like a Futurist: DevLearn 2017 Closing Keynote.”
