“Those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future.”

—John F. Kennedy

It’s the time of year when futurists, fashionistas and pundits are all telling us what’s “out” and what’s “in,” so here’s my humble, non-scientific year-end out/in list for our field. Let the arguments begin:

Out:

 ADDIE

In:

 Agile

Good luck, agile. ADDIE has been around forever and many models before you have tried to dethrone it.

 

Out:

 Google Glass

In:

 Apple Watch

News flash to Apple Watch early adopters: Apple Watch 2 likely in 2016. Already?!?!

 

Out:

 Grades

In:

 Badges

Badges could become the new certification “currency,” but there is much still to do.

 

Out:

 Simulation

In:

 Gamification

Do I get a badge for this one?

 

Out:

 Information scarcity

     In:

 Information abundance

Could too much information be bad?

 

Out:

 Content production

In:

 Content curation

We are drowning in content, much of it bad. We don’t need more as much as we need “better.”

 

Out:

 SCORM

In:

 xAPI

Finally, the potential to track more than courses.

 

Out:

 Transcripts

In:

 Resumes

xAPI will help us get here. Are you listening, LMS industry?

 

Out:

 Learning organization

 In:

 Learning ecosystem

The whole is greater than the sum of its parts.

 

Out:

 Compliance

In:

 Certification

Will organizations finally focus on performance rather than attendance? Wishful thinking?

 

Out:

 Corporate technology platforms

In:

 B.Y.O.D. (bring your own device)

Could be great and liberating for learning, or could be a mess and frustrating. We’ll see.

 

Out:

 Human performance technology

In:

 Performance improvement

Even ISPI is throwing in the towel on this one.

 

Out:

 Mobile learning

In:

 Mobile performance support

Courseware on a 40mm screen on your wrist? Really?

 

Out:

 Courses

In:

 Apps

Is this the breakthrough in performance support we’ve been looking for?

 

Out:

 Target populations

In:

 Cyber intimacy

From “spray and pray” to large groups of people, to targeting “a learner of one.”

 

Out:

 Second Life

In:

 Work life

Virtual reality replaced by real reality.

 

Out:

 eLearning

In:

 eWorking

Will the fuzzy line between learning and work finally disappear?

 

Of course, none of these are truly “out” or completely “in.” We’ve been known to turn around, go backwards and restart. And you can certainly disagree with them. But I do think they are good representations of where we are and where we might be going. And while trends and predictions make for lively discussion and new thinking, they can be controversial and unreliable. A year from now, hindsight may tell a different story.

In the meantime, happy holidays. Have a great 2016.